Dating in business

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Third, we consider the depth of the decline in economic activity.

Recall that our definition includes the phrase, "a significant decline in activity." Fourth, in examining the behavior of domestic production, we consider not only the conventional product-side GDP estimates, but also the conceptually equivalent income-side GDI estimates.

First, we do not identify economic activity solely with real GDP and real GDI, but use a range of other indicators as well.

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Many of the ingredients of the quarterly GDP figures are published at a monthly frequency by government agencies.In the 2001 recession, we found a clear signal in employment and a mixed one in the various measures of output.Consequently, we picked the peak month based on the clear signal in employment, as well as our consideration of output and other measures.A: The unemployment rate is a trendless indicator that moves in the opposite direction from most other cyclical indicators.Its level in February 1949 was the same 4.7 percent as in November 2007.

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